Friday, June 12, 2015
‘Missing’ Milkfat
The CME spot butter price hit a new record high in 2014, and due to environmental factors effecting milk production, the US market is turning out just as tight again in 2015 — contributing to a wonderfully bullish story. But, there is a big problem with the story, and that is there’s a record amount of milkfat going missing. The percentage of unaccounted for milkfat has been relatively stable over time, until it jumped higher in 2013, and again in 2014. In “‘Missing’ Milkfat,” Nathaniel Donnay, Senior Dairy Analyst – Informa Economics attempts to account for all of the milkfat (and protein) between farm production and finished dairy products, and provides market insight into world butter pricing.
Read the full study here.
From the June 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the June 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, butter, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa, milk fat
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
China Stockpiling: Still Not a Long-Term Solution
Three years ago, in this column, Informa Economics looked at the issue of China stockpiling domestic cotton. The article proved prophetic in that the unintended consequences of the program that was in place from 2011-2013 are now being addressed by the Chinese government, which subsequently began selling cotton from the reserve in 2014, and then implemented a policy of direct farmer subsidy. In their follow-up study, “China Stockpiling: Still Not a Long-Term Solution,” Informa Economics reexamines the impact the past actions and more recent policies are having on Chinese farmers, domestic cotton sowings and on world cotton prices.
Read the full study here.
From the May 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the May 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, cotton futures, Informa
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Strong US Dollar Helps Brazil Farmers, Makes Soybean Price Outlook More Bearish
Although the Brazilian real is currently weak due to its poor economic performance, farmers in Brazil benefit from a weaker real relative to the US dollar because soybeans are priced in dollars on the world market. Good yields and high prices during the past several years have put Brazilian farmers in a strong financial position, and have encouraged an increase of Brazil’s soy area. Coupled with increases in US and South American soybean areas, and good yields in both regions, world soybean stocks are now at record large levels. In “Strong US Dollar Helps Brazil Farmers, Makes Soybean Price Outlook More Bearish,” Chris Eggerman, Vice President – Informa Economics, Inc. examines the impact these supplies will have on soybean planting in Brazil and elsewhere, and on world soy bean futures this year and into 2016.
Read the full study here.
From the April 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the April 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa, soybean futures
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
US Ethanol Stocks Climb on Record Productions while Blending Margins Fall: Where is Ethanol Production Headed Next?
The US is the top ethanol–producing country in the world. With domestic consumption of ethanol limited by the E10 blend wall and the outlook for crude oil and gasoline prices expected to remain low during the next few years, pressure will likely remain on ethanol prices, keeping production margins low. In “US Ethanol Stocks Climb on Record Productions while Blending Margins Fall: Where is Ethanol Production Headed Next?” Amanda Bittner, Commodity Analyst, Research – Informa Economics, Inc. delves into factors that will impact ethanol prices and production margins, including crude oil and gasoline prices, blend wall and US ethanol exports, and how these, as well as other factors, will ultimately have an effect on US corn futures in the months ahead.
Read the full study here.
From the March 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the March 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, corn futures, Informa
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Despite Transition Toward Herd Growth, Larger Beef Production; Price Pessimism Likely Overdone
Following several years of herd liquidation, induced by escalating feed costs and dismal operating margins, 2015 is expected to be a transition year for the cattle industry — from herd liquidation to growth — followed by increases in beef production. In “Despite Transition Toward Herd Growth, Larger Beef Production; Price Pessimism Likely Overdone,” Mike Sands, Vice President – Informa Economics examines the fundamental underpinnings and beef merchandising challenges contributing to the cattle and beef markets this winter and into the summer months of 2015.
Read the full study here.
From the February 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the February 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, cattle futures, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
What Would Russian Export Restrictions Mean for Wheat in 2015/16?
Wire reports first surfaced in late November that Russian lobbyists had met with officials to discuss possible restrictions aimed at slowing the shipment of Russian grain in hopes of helping to bolster domestic supplies. In “What Would Russian Export Restrictions Mean for Wheat in 2015/16?” Rob Hatchett, Commodity Analyst – Informa Economics, delves into what policy changes, if any, would occur and what that would mean for world wheat prices if Russian export curbs extend into the 2015/16 marketing year.
Read the full study here.
From the January 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the January 2015 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Tightness in U.S. Soybean Meal Supplies Persists Despite Record Soybean Crop
Because of the various factors involved, it is difficult to predict how long it may take to resolve the tightness in U.S. soybean meal supplies and when soybean and meal prices will go back to reflecting the bearish U.S. and global soybean fundamentals rather than the current domestic soybean meal situation. In “Tightness in U.S. Soybean Meal Supplies Persists Despite Record Soybean Crop,” Chris Eggerman, Vice President - Informa Economics delves into global soybean fundamentals and its impact on soybean meal futures.
Read the full study here.
From the December 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the December 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Election Impacts: Senate Control Key for Several Issues
Issues do not go away despite who controls Congress. And, uncertainty is usually bearish for market direction, but that also means Washington could provide some wild card surprises ahead for commodity markets. In “Election Impacts: Senate Control Key for Several Issues,” Roger Bernard, Policy Analyst and Jim Wiesemeyer, Senior Vice President – Informa Economics take a look at some important market-sensitive topics including: energy, tax policy, economic issues and regulations.
Read the full study here.
From the November 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the November 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Bearish but Strong Cash Market Supports Market
The USDA released their quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Friday September 26, providing survey estimates as of September 1, 2014. Overall, the report was considered bearish by the trade, and could result in additional price weakness across the forward curve. Despite the relatively bearish Hogs and Pigs report the futures market has reacted by trading higher following a sharp drop immediately following the report’s release. In “Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Bearish but Strong Cash Market Supports Market,” Alden Tore, Senior Consultant – Informa Economics examines what the driving force is behind the counter-intuitive market reaction, the impact of PEDv in the coming months, and how the timing of these various fundamental factors does provide some opportunities for this futures market.
Read the full study here.
From the October 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the October 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Hogs and Pigs, Informa
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Does the World Want More Milk in 2015?
The continued declines in prices at the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction have pushed New Zealand dairy prices below production cost. Dairy prices in Europe and the US are falling as well, but the collapse has been faster and more dramatic in Oceania. The Russian import embargo, announced in early August, will also have a significant impact on dairy markets. Meanwhile the biggest unknown is Chinese imports due to poor quality data. In “Does the World Want More Milk in 2015?,” Nathaniel Donnay, Senior Dairy Analyst, Livestock – Informa Economics, Inc. examines what the dairy world will look like for the remainder of 2014 and through 2015.
Read the full study here.
From the September 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the September 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Global Dairy Trade, Informa, Milk
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Mid-Season Production Assessment and Prospects for 2014 Corn Yield
The initial 2014 NASS estimates for corn and soybean production reflecting prospects as of August 1 will be made public at noon Eastern daylight time on Tuesday, August 12. Through the time of this writing, the 2014 US corn growing season has been broadly ‘well above average.’ In “Mid-Season Production Assessment and Prospects for 2014 Corn Yield,” Don Frahm, Sr. Vice President, Research – Informa Economics, Inc. examines these early estimates, which are made absent of knowledge of major production determining events, and how these developments over the remainder of the season can materially add to or subtract from current yield prospects.
Read the full study here.
From the August 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the August 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Corn, Informa, Soy
Monday, July 14, 2014
Trouble on the Horizon in Brazil: Weather Issues to Affect Center/South Production?
Informa forecasts a fifth consecutive surplus in 2014/15 for the world sugar market. With record ending stock levels projected for both the 2013/14 and 2014/15 marketing years, the fundamental scenario would seem decidedly bearish; however, world sugar output does not appear likely to exceed the record 183 million tons produced in 2012/13. In “Trouble on the Horizon in Brazil: Weather Issues to Affect Center/South Production?” Ben Warolin, Senior Analyst, Tropical Products – Informa Economics, Inc. examines the environmental factors effecting cane sugar production, and how Brazil’s standing as the world’s leading producer and exporter of sugar cane will impact the world sugar market.
Read the full study here.
From the July 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the July 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa, Sugar
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Transition to Larger Fed Cattle Supplies to Pressure Prices
Larger feedlot placements the first quarter of 2014, coupled with feedlot inventories close to last year, point to both seasonal and year–over–year increases in fed cattle supplies in late spring and early summer — which stands in sharp contrast to a year earlier when fed beef production plunged nearly 5% and propelled beef prices to historical highs in March. In “Transition to Larger Fed Cattle Supplies to Pressure Prices,” Mike Sands, Vice President – Informa Economics, Inc. delves into the factors influencing beef prices and the cattle futures market through the balance of 2014.
Read the full study here.
From the June 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the June 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, cattle futures, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Lower Corn Prices Fosters Surge to World Corn Export Trade
The nearby U.S. corn futures price slipped near $4.06 in early January – the lowest nearby corn futures had traded since August 2010 - in anticipation that the USDA would raise its 2014 U.S. corn production estimate in January. In “Lower Corn Prices Fosters Surge to World Corn Export Trade,” Mickey Luth – Director of Commodity Price Analysis – Informa Economics, Inc. examines the impact that reducing the 2013/14 U.S. corn carryover projection has had and will have on U.S. corn markets, as well as new-crop U.S. corn production prospects that are expected to influence trade levels in 2014/15.
Read the full study here.
From the May 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the May 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Ukraine Turmoil: Temporary Blip or Lasting Issue for Grain Markets?
The initial wave of global market reaction to the political turmoil in Ukraine appears to have waned, but tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a point of concern for grain markets. Perceived risks to normal production and commerce, especially in Ukraine, remain elevated. In "Ukraine Turmoil: Temporary Blip or Lasting Issue for Grain Markets?,” Don Riffe - Vice President & Director, Crops Economics Research, Kayla Doerr - Commodity Analyst, and Rob Hatchett - Commodity Analyst of Informa Economics, Inc. delve into the Ukraine-Russian state of affairs, suggesting that the currency situation may be the crucial feature to watch, as it has the potential to affect both the cost of production and farmer marketing patterns in the months ahead.
Read the full study here.
From the April 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the April 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
New Farm Programs May Not Prompt Major Acreage Shift
Now that the Agriculture Act of 2014 is signed into law, the process of farmers examining the law to decide their options for the next several crop years is underway. In “New Farm Programs May Not Prompt Major Acreage Shift,” Roger Bernard, Policy Analyst and Jim Wiesemeyer, Senior Vice President of Informa Economics, Inc. examine the new set of farm programs and show that farmers’ own price and production expectations figure heavily into the choices they will be faced to make this year.
Read the full study here.
From the March 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the March 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Big Canadian Crops to Give U.S. Wheat Market a Hangover in 14/15?
Canada’s near-term wheat export program is likely to be throttled by export capacity constraints than by supply/demand. This is expected to leave Canada with relatively large carryover stocks of spring wheat and durum to compete with U.S. wheat in the 2014/15 US marketing year. In “Big Canadian Crops to Give U.S. Wheat Market a Hangover in 14/15?,” Don Riffe, Vice President & Director, Crops Economics Research and Rob Hatchett, Commodity Analyst of Informa Economics, Inc. examine the impact that burdensome Canadian supplies will have on U.S. wheat markets and expected trade levels in 2014-2015.
Read the full study here.
From the February 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the February 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Thursday, January 9, 2014
U.S. Hog Industry Struggles to Understand PEDV
The last six months has been very challenging for virtually all participants in the lean hog complex. The market is treading into unforeseen territory as the industry tries to understand the magnitude of supply and price impact associated with the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV). In “U.S. Hog Industry Struggles to Understand PEDV,” Seanicaa E. Edwards, Analyst - Hog and Pork of Informa Economics, Inc. addresses the major concerns facing active participants in the pork industry, and the impact on Lean Hog futures.
Read the full study here.
From the January 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the January 2014 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Is Soybean Oil Too ‘Cheap’ in the Oilseed Complex?
Domestic soybean oil stocks on October 1st were at the lowest level in nine years and one-third lower than a year ago. In “Is Soybean Oil Too ‘Cheap’ in the Oilseed Complex?” Nick Hoyt, Vice President and Chris Eggerman, Senior Commodity Research Analyst of Informa Economics, Inc. discuss the environmental and policy factors impacting this sector’s outlook for the near future.
Read the full study here.
From the December 2013 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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From the December 2013 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
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Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, Informa
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
EPA’s 2014 Plans on Biofuels: Policy and Market Implications
The initial increase in ethanol usage over the last decade saw an expansion in US corn acreage to meet that demand, but will the ‘blend wall’ and gasoline pump infrastructure lead to a US corn surplus? In “EPA’s 2014 Plans on Biofuels: Policy and Market Implications,” Jim Wiesemeyer, Roger Bernard and Mickey Luth of Informa Economics, Inc. discuss the regulations and infrastructure contributing to a potential bearish corn market in 2013/2014.
Read the full study here.
From the November 2013 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
Do you need a competitive advantage in the market? Informa Economics has designed a web-based service that will provide you with an information and resource advantage to keep you one step ahead -- the Informa Economics Trader.
Try before you buy - Access the world’s best short-term commodity market analysis for 14 days for free.
Read the full study here.
From the November 2013 issue of Barclay's Insider Report. Accredited investors can subscribe to the full newsletter for free.
Analysis of Commodity Market Fundamentals
Do you need a competitive advantage in the market? Informa Economics has designed a web-based service that will provide you with an information and resource advantage to keep you one step ahead -- the Informa Economics Trader.
Try before you buy - Access the world’s best short-term commodity market analysis for 14 days for free.
Labels: Barclay Insider Report, Barclay Insider Report Guest Article, commodities, Commodity Markets Analysis, CTA, Informa
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